VTrans 2040 Scenario Analysis

Virginia

Under a contract to the Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment, Michael Baker provided a scenario analysis for connected and automated vehicles in support of the 2040 Multimodal Transportation Plan. Virginia’s 2040 Multimodal Transportation Plan includes a 2040 Scenario Analysis to examine how key trends may affect long-term investment plans and policies.

Our team prepared a set of trend drivers for demographics, economics, technology and the environment. For each driver, research was conducted to identify potential outcomes for travel demand, system performance, mode split and user costs. The research effort included an intensive look at the autonomous and connected vehicle trends and the current outlook for their implementation, as well as a high-level assessment of potential social, economic and other impacts.

The scenario analysis uses a sketch planning approach that provides relative quantitative differences and, in many cases, qualitative differences in the outcomes across scenarios. The outcomes provide a basis for policymakers to discuss the implications of the trends – such as vehicle automation – for future investment priorities, policy development and further research and planning discussions.